ROBIN - Ascot 3.45 Handicap Chase - Class 1 - 3 miles - 12 run Soft > Heavy

 

I'm not at all convinced by Beauport at the top of the market, jumping issues led to a very frustrating season last time round, clearly a talented horse who would have been schooled and schooled but this will be a tough test of that schooling at the price. Monbeg Genius had a stellar campaign but has gone from a mark of 122 to 140 in the process and runs off 147 here and most telling for me is how much it needed a seasonal debut run last year! Mucho Mas ran up a sequence to of 2-2-1-1- from 116 to 125, runs off 129, is another exceptionally promising Ben Pauling horse and I do wonder if he could do on Saturdays this Autumn/Winter what Skelton did last year, I leave him out today VERY reluctantly but only on fitness grounds.

 

Eldorado Allen has been in some very hot races is OK fresh but i would worry about its chances on anything worse than soft, Two For Gold is a horse who I am convinced will progress again and win race this season, David Bass is likely to run prominently here and rhythm is key and he is vastly under-rated at it, a real danger if primed, the key word is "if". Yeah Man is from the Cromwell yard in Ireland so has to be feared but a stone above Irish handicap mark and not ideally placed at 3 miles. Victtoirino is a wholly unexposed mud loving French import for Venertia Williams, could be anything, could be another Aso type, she had a winner in the week, the stats geeks will now be backing her blind as it's November, impossible to know with any degree of confidence what may happen!

 

I'm left with 3 of the 12 runners who most interest me on the day. LARRY is a Course and Distance winner and a Course specialist, Garry Moore has a few we liked a lot in the Newmarket race Ian has referred to earlier in the mail. He runs two here, the other is ZHINGULI. LARRY won this race in 2021, won a race over shorter here in November 2022, both off marks of 132, runs off 135 here and just for me ticks every box. ZHINGULI  makes seasonal debut, best in soft and heavy, has won fresh off a mark of 253 days and arrives here off a 199 day break. We know how good this yard can be, and we know how dangerous they are in and around the M25 area, just too obvious for me to ignore with that form profile.

 

The only other one I really wanted to have something on was FLEGMATICK. Lightly raced last season, one of my personal TEN TO FOLLOW, I'm convinced this horse is going places, but the rain may mean it's not today but I can't resist a small dabble and just wait for Good to Soft or genuinely soft Going!

 

Tips (1) Larry / (2) Zhinguli / (3s) Flegmatick