Chepstow - Friday 4th February

CHEPSTOW - 3.30 Handicap Chase - Class 4 - 3 miles 2 and 1/2 Furlongs - 17 run - Good to Soft (plenty of rain about so likely wet / soft by the start)
 
I think WAYFINDER for Rebecca Curtis is a more than worthy favourite here, A Course and Distance winner off a mark of 113, has had 2 runs in Class 3 but comes back to the scene of its Course and Distance win dropped back in to Class 4 off a mark of 113. There are no excuses and I WILL be having a win saver personally.
 
There are plenty of dangers though amongst the exposed and much less exposed types and it could be a cracking race.
 
At the top end of the market Ashfield Paddy carries top weight for Jonjo and I'm not totally convinced that with that weight that this extended trip will suit it. I think they may be testing its range here whilst not being too concerned if he loses a few pounds off the back of it. Dr Karanga has won over 3 miles in P2P days, was disappointing last time and I don't think therefore the price is particularly good value.
 
At the bottom end of the market you could give glimmers of a chance at big Odds to bother Al Roc,whose mark is dropping fast but who could find a level it can be more competitive off and also Landsman who travelled very well in a tougher race here on Welsh National Day before falling, will strip fitter for it and with the Yard in good form there may be a big run coming. One to keep an eye on and track forwards when eased a bit more possibly.
 
Butterwick Brook too is not without a chance , it gets 3 miles, was Pulled Up last time after a win the time before but the Tizzard Yard are definitely in much better form now and a big run would be no surprise. Ballyrath won at 66/1 off a 900+ day break last time, has P2P for at 3 and 4 miles so won't lack stamina. We've highlighted the form of the Yards horses throughout January and the main niggle for me is the dreaded "bounce" factor off such a long break. Another who is worth very close inspection, its that type of race. Volcano a bit like Al Roc is essentially out of form but edging down the weights and likely to find a level at some point, hopefully for us not today.
 
Petite Power will surely run its race again and always a horse to fear but it has its first run here since 2017 and that may be a clue as to how they feel the horse will handle the track and possibly coming more for the ground and to stay fit and lose a few more pounds?. La Cavsa Nostra is a Course and Distance winner who returns off a break of 813 days, as Ballyath proved that isn't always a negative but the balance of all logic suggests it will need the run and hopefully get round safe and show that the old ability remains. Kingsmill Gin for the Du Plessis yard who have a fantastic runner to winner strike rate won last time out but gets an 11lbs penalty and a step up to Class 5, Another Emotion needed its seasonal debut and may still need this and a few more pounds off the handicapper.
 
I'm most drawn to 3 in addition to WAYFINDER.
 
I don't think the Going will be Heavy or bottomless but at last decent soft rained on genuine Going not pudding, so looking for horses with scope!!
 
ECEPARTI ran 3rd here recently on seasonal debut and will surely come on for the run. It is upped in trip but looks like it will handle it and the Course form rates it a really dangerous horse. SILVER IN DISGUISE and MOUSEINTHEHOUSE are more speculative but from the Tim Vaughan and Evan Williams yard are both very unexposed at this trip but have shown an aptitude for 3 miles and have form to prove they get that trip and now may be the time for both to flourish upped to this intermediate trip.
 
MOUSEINTHEHOUSE placed on it's only run over 3 miles and wasn't stopping at the line. They then stepped back to shorter and have no doubt been looking to try this trip for a while. The form of that place over 3 miles has been franked by the winner Powerful Position (on more than one occasion) and suggests this is a nice handicap mark and if Adam Wedge can get the horse filling up regularly throughout the race and not in to a hot battle too soon it could come with a strong late run.
 
SILVER IN DISGUISE won a P2P over 3 miles THAT has been franked by Go Whatever and suggests this is a nice handicap mark and if Alan Johns can also get the horse filling up regularly throughout the race and not in to a hot battle too soon it could come with a strong late run.
 
So your choice on a win saver for WAYFINDER plus-:
 
TRACKER - Eceparti / Shrapnel - Mouseinthehouse + Silver in Disguise
 
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4.00 Handicap Hurdle - Class 4 - 2 miles 3 and 1/2 furlongs - Good to Soft - 13 run
 
This is another very tricky race and with Henderson and Lavelle holding the top 2 in the market it's not going to be an easy one to win.
 
EATON COLLINA though for the Kerry Lee team is very unexposed and the form of its second place last time has been franked, any rain before Racing will be welcomed and the price is attractive given the strength of the Henderson and Lavelle horses who look strong but not impregnable. MANOFMANYWORDS too was tracked after an impressive run last time and has good P2P form at this trip and at 3 miles so no stamina concerns. Both are worth tracking closely after today but it will be disappointing if we aren't picking up some enhanced place money at the very least.
 
Felvel is definitely another to follow closely for Dr Newland and would be my reserve in this race if any non runners and another to watch today but to track for next run is MEGAUDAIS SPEED, a fragile but talented horse who may just need this run but clearly talented type. Smiths Boy and Point of Principal may outrun big odds, Crystal Gazing is another who may need the run but is worth following closely after today, 
 
TRACKERS - Eaton Collina + Manofmanywords