ROBIN - Welsh National - Chepstow 2.50 - 3 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - 20 run - Soft / Heavy

 

THis is going to be a real stamina test and it's all about rhythm and getting as far as you can in a rhythm and without any jumping issues, forward momentum is vital and I can't see anything other than a strung out field down the home straight and a significant number pulled up and saved for another day when chance has gone.

 

Autonomous Cloud is being well backed for the very much in-form Fergal O'Brien team and recent big race successes are richly deserved for one of the hardest working, genuinely nice and friendly blokes you could wish to meet. Nassalam had a nice win here last time but has to prove it gets the trip and it's not ideal conditions to have to do that. I have similar trip concerns about Complete Unknown and Super Survivor who also needs to tidy up its jumping. 

 

If there is one I leave out very reluctantly it is The Galloping Bear who has proven stamina but who returns off a break of 284 days.

 

With enhanced places I was left with 5 for varying investments.

 

I have most confidence in IWILLDOIT has been there, done it and got the t-short, won this race in 2021 and big Warwick race in 2022, very lightly raced in general and a warm up run should have it spot on here. CHAMBARD won well for us at double figure SP last time and I think has been laid out for this race. I'll be disappointed if its not placed at least. For some shrapnel, I like THE BIG BREAKAWAY runner up last time in this, poor form since but the booking of Adam Wedge who is excellent around chepstow really catches my eye. TRUCKERS LODGE is past his best but the sort who can and has plodded round here and similar trips a number of times, I see this as PFN giving him another shot at a nice pot and I don't think he'll be one pulled up and saved for another day, this is the day!. Finally for the £1e/w type bet, I think DIDERO VALLIS is over-priced, stays 3 miles and 2 furlongs, likes mud, has been over Cross Country fences and a horse who can get in to a nice rhythm.

 

Tips (1) Iwilldoit / (2) Chambard / (3s) The Big Breakaway / (4s) Truckers Lodge / (5s - if you wish) Didero Vallis