A race in which the top 3 in the market may be shorter than their actual chances indicate and a few of the others may be overpriced as a result.

 

Valentino has run up a nice sequence, runner up and then two wins but with fitness advantage in those winning races and a rising mark from 83 to 93 and now 96, I'm happy to take the horse on in this slightly deeper race. The next pair in the market are both trained by Colin Tizzard and his prowess and the form of the yard has undoubtedly influenced the market. If you look closely though at the actual form of Sixty Dollars More, who despite being runner up at Fontwell has been moderate overall and Getmgold, who had moderate P2P form over this kind of trip and who blew hard after running prominently for a while over shorter on seasonal debut, then I think there is definitely better value elsewhere in this field.

 

Glentrool has been off for 230 days, may need this run as a result and has shown probably more promise than the Tizzard horses. Manofmanywords too is off a 266 day break and makes its seasonal debut, it's its first handicap run but it has won a 3 mile P2P and definitely with Glentrool is one you'd think could win races when race fit. We'll track both of those from today.

 

My pair against the field though on an otherwise very poor day value wise are MR WASHINGTON a Course winner (always handy here) and also a winner at the trip. It built up a winning sequence last year off marks from 92 to 107 and although off for 277 days has won fresh off similar breaks before and one I think will be ready to run a big race here.

 

It may be an advantage that GUILLEMOT has had a run, it was in quite a hot little race at Aintree, a winner at Stratford last season, like many of Henry Daly's will need a run or two and he will be patient and wait for rain with many of his too. If it's benefitted from the run like I suspect it will, could be nice value against the 3 or 4 above it in the market.

 

Just a 1/2 point each way on both.