This is a Hands and Heels race and most likely on dead ground after Frost covers are removed.

 

In this type of race I like to find horses who run prominently near the pace and who don't tend to hit flat spots as it's key for the less experienced jockeys to not "over ride" the horse.

 

At the top of the market Townhill is an unexposed 3 mile P2P horse who looks the one to beat IF you want a win only side bet. I prefer to look elsewhere for value with enhanced places to 5th.

 

I'm On My Way is also a P2P recruit finally upped in trip under Rules and also carries a 4lbs penalty, it's hard to say how it will cope with this sort of race so I will swerve it but fear it. Pipers Cross has a clear chance but can run lazily and get detached and then stays on , so obvious concerns there. Post Chaise comes Hurdling for the first time in a long while and is top weight based on Chase form and has a sporting e/w chance on that Chase form. The hardest to figure out is Faha Belle for Fergal O'Brien, an unexposed 3 mile P2P winner who is upped in trip and very dangerous given the Yards form in this type of race. He would be RESERVE if we have a non runner. 

 

Dequail is in the TRACKER but has been in poor form since returning from an 18 month break, Harkangel is upped in trip but has a positive profile and might improve for it, Little Talks is another ex Pointer on handicap debut and one to keep an eye on longer term. Lough Salt is a 13 year old but a potentially very kind ride in this sort of race and if you wanted a £1 e/w then the Course, trip , Going and handicap mark all look favourable.

 

I was most confident though about 4 horses with almost all Bookies enhancing to 5th place.

 

RICKETY GATE fell over Course and Distance last year when right in contention and ticks all the right boxes for me, POPPOP has shown promise in its last 2 runs, arrives in form and the trip looks ideal, BABY SHAM has had a couple of runs and past evidence suggests it will come on considerably for them and is another who likes to run prominently and proven at the trip. Finally, for some shrapnel is SADIE HILL who is also in the TRACKER who will enjoy the trip, the ground, off an OK handicap mark and who likes to run at or near the front.

 

Tips (1) Rickety Gate / (2) Poppop / (3s) Baby Sham / (4s) Sadie Hill