ROBIN - Exeter 4.00 Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 1/2 furlong , Good - 16 run

 

At the head of the market we have the Skeltonhorse BAHTIYAR who actually looks good "win value" at anything around 7/2 or better. The saddle slipped last time and prior to that a few promising runs. It's not a particularly deep race and it'll be a surprise frankly if it doesn't win here with a clear round and no tack issues!

 

Both Ten Ten Twenty and Vin Rouge look solid but unspectacular rivals and I'd hope there is something a bit more scopey or progressive or hidden off a nice mark to take those pair on for each way purposes. Pittsburgh has form figures of 11222 over Fences and Hurdles but may just be in the grip of the handicapper too as well. Ferrybridge is an ex Irish horse who could be anything literally and the same applies to Cawthorne Cracker who has shown a few glimpses of form. The Pipe team send out Pepsiwithacap who on balance of form looks like it might struggle up this hill having faded late on a few times on flatter tracks. It may be that's due to it being outpaced so I don't totally rule it out but we'll know a lot more after the race I'd imagine. Turpin Gold has its first run since a wind op and is another i'll watch with interest.

 

There are three at bigger odds who I think could out run their Odds, they are TALLYS SON who has won a small race off a mark of 73 and placed also, exposed off a mark of 75 with a 4lbs Claimer but the sum parts of the actual form add up to a lot more than the potential but lack of form of most of the others. HAPPY COMPANY is aDistance winner off a mark of 95, has had a run and should outrun odds of 16-20/1 and the other one to watch will be MARLEY HEAD who runs very freely and prominently, it ran very well to this sort of trip over 1/2 mile further last time. The question is does it lack stamina or does it have a wind issue, I'll wager a crafty £1 e/w at big odds because I just have a gut feeling it's the type to take advantage of a soft lead sometime somewhere!

 

The main one against BAHTIYAR though has to be GERARD MENTOR, we have to take fitness on trust but after a wind op a Course and Distance win off a mark of 95 last November and wins off 90 and 102 suggest that a mark of 99 with a 7 lbs claim is positive and it has run well fresh before.

 

Tips (1w) Bahtiyar / (2) Gerard Mentor / (3s) Tallys Son / (4s) Happy Company  - see notes about Marley Head 50/1 everywhere!