A bit of a topsy turvy race this so let's look at the top end of the market .

 

Olivers Island at around 2/1 steps up from 2 nice Class 5 wins, gets a nice 7lbs Claimer, clearly in form but against clearly better horses the price offers no real betting value. The same could be said about Artic Mann a Course and Distance winner, up 11lbs, no reason why it can't win but at 5/2 represents little real value in a slog over nearly 3 miles.

Kaproyale, is unproven at the trip, not at all sure about the Going and looks too short on that basis, Off The Beat similarly is not yet proven at trip or in the Going, Chancelton comes on a hat trick but off a 507 day break. 

 

In all probability that's 80% likely the winner is in there but a few who are proven in the conditions do look very good value of you delve down a lot deeper in to past form and form in these conditions over an 3 mile trip.

 

ACHILL ROAD BOY is a stayer, OK we'll call him a plodder, he is, he's always worth a small each way bet at a price, his Heavy ground form though is not quite as clear as may be you'd assume and the recent Yard form is a worry.

 

SKYHILL had a Course win a year ago, off a mark of 98 over a shorter trip of 2 miles and 5 furlongs, ran up a 4 timer rising from a mark of 79 to 98 and may just be coming back to a mark it can win off, and it will definitely be going in to my Tracker if that mark drops after today. Has won at 3 miles slight niggle about heavy.

 

The one I really like though is COURT BALOO, Course winner off marks of 92 and 98, including Heavy, drops from some Class 3 races in to a Class 4, back to a nice mark too of 102 and just strikes me as a horse who will love conditions, loves the Track clearly and eased that little bit off a declining mark. I'll be very disappointed if it doesn't outrun these Odds and like Skyhill, certainly one to keep a close eye on as I think both can win races off marks reducing just a few pounds more.

 

TIP is definitely COURT BALOO, I'll have a Tracker on SKYHILL and take the risk on Achill Road Boy but he's reserve in case on a non runner.