A race that has often been run on better ground and where stamina may prove to be more important than usual. A race that has tended to be won by an improving horse with a good Claimer on board although in these conditions it may play out as a more traditional tight handicap unless something "wholly unexposed" pops up.

 

IF there is such a horse at a big price then I will throw a small £1 each way arrow at FIFTY BALL @ 40/1  from the Gary Moore yard. its been off for 293 days but they arrive with some interesting form in this type of ground and suggestions it may improve the further it goes. It's a canny yard, especially around the M25 and would be no shock if it outran its odds. At the other end of the scale and off top weight I think CAMPROND @ 33/1 is very over-priced it's won some significant races and despite top weight looks well handicapped on the basis of the class of company it usually keeps.

 

Putting those pair aside I'm not at all convinced about the value of Dubrovnik Harry and Green Glory at the top end of the market and happy to take them on. Harbour Lake is very solid and consistent and deserves to win a nice handicap but I'd think that would be possibly over shorter and off a slightly lower mark and definitely on better ground. Hermes Boy steps up in Class and holds place claims at best, Cobblers Dream won this race in 2021 but it runs off a significantly higher mark with usual and successful headgear discarded and it doesn't strike me as a race that's going to throw up a repeat winner.

 

Quinta Du Mar for Ben Pauling fell running well and in contention late on in this race last year and has undoubtedly been laid out for a repeat attempt since, it just missed my final selection list as I just have a niggle it gets the trip in better conditions and the Going is a niggle, a big danger though. Scarface for the Tizzards has won its last 2 races very impressively, makes handicap debut and could be anything and frankly is hard to assess. Stag Horn off a 281 day break is a genuine danger and was very seriously considered if fit and ready and one I will TRACK forwards from today and already in the Tracker is Up For Parol who also makes a seasonal debut and who I think will come on for it and be a horse to follow very closely in the weeks ahead!

 

My two main fancies are OUTLAW PETER from the Nicholls yard, on handicap debut but very hard to ignore and whilst usually in January you swerve the Yard (due to flu vaccinations) they seem to have may be delayed them a bit this time round based on horses form and I think the logical explanation is they don't target large numbers at Cheltenham any more so can afford to attack races now and after cheltenham. PETIT TONNER from the Jonjo yard with junior in the saddle is another that looks primed to the day to my eyes, it's on a nice mark, progressive and comes from the French mud so no Going excuses. 

 

I narrowed down to 3 for smaller stakes but having already identified a pair at the beginning for a quid each way I will just leave out Rtahmacknee for the always dangerous Henderson whose chances would have been measurably better with less rain but who should be in contention and will go with RED RISK who may be the Nicholls second string but who has some solid form. It's not obviously well handicapped but as I suggested earlier on, this is going to be a really tough trip for many and I think IF it runs to its mark it can place at least. The other one who is unexposed is WEST BALBOA it also makes handicap debut and whilst the Yard have hit a quieter spell (no doubt in my mind vaccinating) they would not be running this hore here is not 100% and I suspect it's a plan and whatever happens he will be put away for a while after this and given a break.