Musselburgh 12.15
Musselburgh 12.15 - Conditional Jockey Handicap Hurdle - Class 4 - 12 run - 2 miles 4 furlongs - Soft (dry cloudy day)
A decent little race and the market is headed by an Irish raider in Lady Rocco who is decent in low grade Irish Hurdle races but will run off a mark 10lbs above its usual Irish Rating. We all know how these low grade horses can come over on the ferry with form hidden under a bushel and romp home subject to a massive punt. This one looks to me more like a solid performer, nothing hidden, may be good enough to win but certainly not something to lump on.
The next in the market is Clearance, basically a decent Flat handicapper for Ian Jardine, had a couple of Maiden Hurdle runs over 2 miles, jumped OK but not wht you'd class a fluent, upped in trip, may have some "flat class" but not real value at the price. The better value may be stablemate ANIMORE has won off marks of 101 and 108, best when running prominently which suits here perfectly. Fell on seasonal debut, up to a mark of 112. Might just need this run, the one I think they all have to beat, if you want a "win saver" your discretion, I have a pair I think are better each way value here.
Of the remainder, Good Bye is hardest to fathom and could be an unexposer improver, Sarvi was runner up here over 2 miles last time out and ran OK at this trip once at Perth, niggle is the Going and I think more of a summer jumper.Effet Special also near the top of the market hasn't proven itself at the trip and for that reason I've steered clear.
The biggest each way danger to my pair is The Blame Game. Young McMenamin is a very impressive apprentice, the horse has winning form at the trip, just not sure it's handicapped yet to best effect though but would have a bet on it if either of the selections was a non runner.
My picks for 1/2 point bets are both eased in Class here; NEWTOWN BOY has had 3 runs in Class 2 and 3 races. An ex Alan King horse now with Keith Dalgleish. Won at Haydock over 2 miles and 3 furlongs in soft off a mark of 125, runner up at Hereford in a Class 4 on Good to Soft off 130 and arrives here fit and off a mark of 122. Might be a shrewd bit of placement. BHUTAN for Jonjo also drops in Class. Out of Form on paper but fit, comes a long way and off a mark of 121 with a decent 8lbs Claimer up, has no excuses for not delivering a far better run.
TRACKERS - Bhutan + Newtown Boy