MUSSELBURGH 3.25 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 4 - 3 miles - Going - Good (no rain indeed a very decent forecast)

 

If we start at the top of the market with those at short prices.

 

Ratfacemcdougall won for Graeme McPherson last time out, comes a long way for this and the ground but really doesn't strike me as an obvious one to follow up and run up a sequence. It may have gained confidence and might get 3 miles here better than almost anywhere else but at the Odds, I really do want to take it on.

 

Del Duque from Olly Murphy yard has won last 2 races by narrow margins off marks of 105 and 110, off 116 here, it may be a canny horse who just does enough but again the style of the wins so far does make me think handicapper may just have him.

 

Millie of Mayo for Nicky Richards has won at Market Rasen (similar quirky track) off marks of 85 and 93, then won at Hexham off a mark of 100. It's now up to a mark of 111 and clearly progressing, but again you have to question if it's reached a ceiling now and if the price is value?

 

So, with my contrarian hat on where is the value and proof of form to beat them, as sometimes following the herd is clearly not the way to go?

 

Buckled has Course form but is another who looks handicapped to the hilt. Maison D'Or could be one to track after today, a smay just need this run and will be of interest off any mark below 100, Dame De Ruban from Phil Kirby yard is one I'd flag up as biggest danger to my selections but just a niggle about the trip.

 

I will play a Tracker bet on Lucinda Russel's pair, both have had a run which will definitely bring them on fitness wise. Both have good and solid course form, and both look over-priced in the market against the top 3 and others to my fom eye.

 

ORDER OF THISTLE is a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 110, runs off 112 here with a good 3lbs Claimer and would seem to hold solid each way chances with no excuses about the Going. At bigger odds I can also see a case for IZZYS CHAMPION has won over the Course and runner up over Course and Distance, off marks of 96 and 103 respectively, so the mark today of 97 with a 3lbs Claimer up looks very appealing.