I really narrowed this down to a shortlist of 4 in these conditions.

 

Well Above Par has a good Course and Distance record and is OK in heavy but is well above a mark it usually wins or places off and for that reason alone just misses out on an investment but it would be no surprise to see it place. Frimeur De Lancray is probably a better Chaser but he has won an Hurdle race on Heavy and the trip is OK. Sue Smiths yard is quiet BUT she will have been waiting for the rain so don't discount the Yard now picking up some momentum on ground that'll suit their horses a lot better. 

 

If you want those pair in a small Tricast Perm it may pay a nice dividend but my pair against the field are SCOTTISH ACCENT and UPTOWN HARRY.

 

SCOTTISH ACCENT really ticks every box it won this race in 2021 on Heavy Going off a mark of 105, it won again last time off 104 and upped just 4lbs to a mark of 108 it looks like the one they all have to beat. Depending on the price a 2 point win bet or an each way banker, the stake at your discretion.

 

The each way value should be UPTOWN HARRY it actually gets 3 miles and is fine in Heavy ground, it's below its last win mark and not hard to imagine connections just hunting round until the stamina comes into play and picking off tired horses and getting home in a place. That's the least of my expectations today.

 

 

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This is a cracking race to consider for a wet and cold Monday!

 

At the top of the market, Walk In My Shoes may have some 3 mile P2P form but on better ground, it's upped from 2 miles on its second Handicap appearance under Rules and I'm just not sure either how good the horse is or how much they'll want to take out of it. You Some Boy has won its last 3 races for Rebecca Menzies off 82-90 and 94, gets walloped up now to 103 and they may also not want to flog the horse in these conditions. Lady Bowes for the Moffatt yard with the excellent Charlotte Jones in the saddle gets 3 miles in heavy and would have probably the most solid claims of the market leaders. 

 

Dequail is in our Tracker (see below) and is a Course winner and a Distance winner but I'm not convinced it likes it this deep, Shoeshine Boy is upped in trip and probably not the right time to try that being logical and Light Flicker has to lug top weight around and may be more at home over fences. 

 

I like the chances of SUTTON MANOR for Lucinda, interesting they put a 10lbs Claimer up here, the horse is a front runner so he'll need to get the fractions spot on and keep something for the final climb but its not hard to visualise the rest strung out and some pulled up before fatigue takes over. I'm not convinced it'll win but it may stay on and walk over the line into a place IF they get the fractions right. Sarlenes Son has a 3 miles win in mud at Bangor on Dee off a mark of 92, has placed off 100 and runs off 97, it's a massive danger to the three I prefer and I wouldn't put anyone off a small shrapnel side bet or including in a Tricast perm of 4 horses. Cresswell Queen has some 3 mile P2P form in Good ground is upped back to that trip and with a tongue tie and may be the one to track and follow from this race with some potential under better conditions.

 

My main two (in addition to SUTTON MANOR) are OLIVERS ISLAND and QUEEN OF FAME.

 

OLIVERS ISLAND has undoubtedly been waiting for some rain and soft to heavy Going. its won in similar conditions off a mark of 78 and placed off 83, it won't be pretty but it should get round and has a sporting chance off a mark of 86 with a 5lbs Claimer in the saddle.

 

The real value of the race may be QUEEN OF FAME. It's not yet delivered in the UK since changing Trainer but look at some of that Irish form in mud over this trip placed off today's mark and with just 10 stones and 1 lb to carry is going to surely be sent out looking to optimise its proven form in these conditions. Well worth a speculative e/w punt.