Newbury 1.15
ROBIN - Newbury 1.15 - Handicap Chase - Class 2 - 2 miles 6 1/2 furlongs - 16 run - Going - Good
A competitive renewal but one I think is most likely to be dominated by the top half of the market on Going that is probably better than many would like and tends to negate those with proven stamina in more testing ground.
There are a few at bigger Odds who could "pop up" but I'd have more confidence if the Going was softer. There are also a number of basically "hold up" horses, who may find themselves outpaced and off the bridle sooner than they'd like which can impact on their rhythm. In that category I'd have, The Bay Birch for the Shepherds who has an interesting falling mark and one to track over next few runs. As You Like was third in this in 2019, could run well but I think basically in the grip of the handicapper off this mark.One the is on it's win mark and well handicapped is Champagne Court, it is mostly held up but best runs have been when running prominently and at bigger Odds may be one for a shrapnel bet, especially if prominent in the very early stages "in running".
Orchardstown Cross is another hold-up type and a Course and Distance winner also trained by Jeremy Scott with the excellent Rex Dingle up and one I want to keep a close eye on in the coming months as looks ready to pick up a prize but may be in a race less deep than this. Doctor Dex usually runs well fresh and if we take fitness on trust one that could be a big danger, just a niggle about this trip puts me off.
That left me with three and I just leave out CANELO, a progressive horse for Alan King, won last time off 130, up to a mark of 138 and that's my only niggle. I just feel though that the proven form in the Grade and in these conditions gives COURT MASTER and KAPCORSE stronger claims.
COURT MASTER is a Course and Distance winner, off a decent enough mark, conditions to suit and has the prominent run style profile I'm looking for. KAPCORSE has not been seen for 2 years; winning this in very impressive fashion 2 years ago. If he is fit he'll take all the beating and I don't think PFN would be pitching him in here if he didn't think he was primed and fit enough to run well.
TIPS - Court Master + Kapcorse (if you want a small bet in running on 6 Champagne Court @ 14/1 - see the notes)