I can't back BERMEO at 2/1 in this type of race and don't know enough about the Irish challenger to think he is any value. They may well come 1-2, but this is likely to be a race of fluctuating fortunes, ones going well suddenly finding nothing; and something that has struggled finding a second wind and prevailing in one of those desperate finishes, this undulating track seems to throw up regularly.

So, where is the value?. ITOLDYOU is a horse we followed a few times last season and ran a few nice places for us, gets the trip, has Course and Distance form but last 3 seasons on seasonal debut has finished 5/8; 7/9 and 7/9, one for a few months time I think. ROGUE DANCER is at the other end of that's cale, as ran very well to be runner up after 536 days off last time, on face value the 13 year old has a solid chance here but the "bounce factor" and also niggles about the trip just put me off, he would not be a surprise winner, but I have to make a call between him and 2 others. RIVER OF INTRIGUE has a Course win to its name but was pulled up last time, another danger, but not quite for me today.

CRUISING BYE possibly needed the run last time behind Bermeo, it gave Bermeo 22lbs that day, beaten 17 lengths, but gets a 10lbs pull today, so strictly speaking the gap reduces to 7 lengths (1lb = 1 length logic) - I fancy a bold run and he is the first tip. ROYALS AND REBELS has had a run and can run in snatches, so don't be alarmed if he is rousted early, this is moderate level. Has a Course win and get trip, proven by a win at Fontwell in May and Sam Twiston-Davies an interesting and positive booking.