It's hard to know exactly how the course will ride after heavy frost and prior to that heavy rain. I think it's going to be a real test of stamina either way.

 

A number of Course specialists, a few in form horses and a few who look ready to win as they pop up once a season and are "overdue".

 

A real conundrum, which is what we love.

 

At the head of the market is Sigurd, a couple of facile wins but races that may have fallen apart. The handicapper has reacted from a mark of 81 to 88 last time and now up to 102. This looks a deeper race and as a result I'll take the short priced favourite on. Event Of Sivola fell early on last time, trip is probably just in range but unless it's got a firm top on the surface, I think the Going likely to be too tacky on past form. Game Line is third favourite but frankly another who may not be test suited to this kind of slog.

 

THE OGLE GOGLE MAN came up against an in form horse last time, subsequently franked. New Yard will have had a few more weeks with the horse and has past form at the trip and on heavy Going and the one I think most likely towards the top end of the market to oblige and pay instant return for new connections.

 

You'd have to give Derrick D'Anjou a chance but another who may struggle to jump out of this Going so not for me today.

 

There are 3 at nice prices I really like as good solid each way punts.

 

In order of preference THE REAPING RACE has shown up well to 3 miles a number of times, usually staying on and closing near line it has good Irish form in these type of conditions is only an 8 year old and one who looks like it could benefit from the extra distance and optimise on some promise so far.

 

SPIRIT OF HALE is a bit of a typical Candlish horse, runs flat and out of form and then pops up when conditions are right. A Course and Distance winner on heavy off a mark of 78, runs off 79 and the low weight here (10 stones) just gives it the nod for me and I'd expect an improved run.

 

That low weight for Spirit of Hale just gets it the nod over LATE DATE a multi Course and Distance winner but mostly on Good to Soft or Soft going. It's been managed to get a mark down below 100 and could strike soon. It's just the weight carrying angle that keeps it off the investment list but a handy reserve if any non runners.

 

 

I did look at the 2.30 but can find excuses for all of them there might be a bit of value in Barnay but not enough confidence for me to have any investment.