We suggest a 1/4 point each way on the following thoughts from Robin-:

 

Southwell 12.20 a 3 mile 2 furlong trip over the portable chase fences with a lot of rain about. Many of these won't like it too wet and if it becomes a test of attrition off a half decent pace (as opposed to a plod round) then LATE DATE who is a Distance winner at Sedgefield and fine on soft and heavy and TOMMY THE RASCAL whose Trainer has had 3 winners from his last 6 runners with the excellent David Crosse up, could make most of proven stamina and ability to handle mud, with 2 poor runs at least getting him to a decent level of fitness.

 

At Carlisle, small fields mean some races will just be a plod round and a 3 furlong gallop (sprint does not seem the right word in likely deep mud), so in the 2.10 the conditions may best suit JUSTATENNER who looks the most likely to give the strong favourite Ask Dillon most to do.