ROBIN - Uttoxeter 5.20 Novice Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs - Good to Soft - 13 run

 

I'm a bit flummoxed how old Franz Klammer can manage to get into a Novice Handicap Hurdle but that's one of the vagaries of Horse Racing.

 

The top of the market centres around 3-4 horses with Horizon D'Or a recent Fontwell winner a short priced favourite. In it's way that Track is as quirky as this one and for that reason and given the relatively low level of the race, I'm happy to take anything on at such a short price. Eaton Lady has a Course and Distance win in May off a mark of 81, runs off 85 but has an inexperienced if capable 10lbs Claimer in the saddle and there are a few top jockeys in this race who may expose that frailty at the business end of this race. Jack The Farmer has been a Course and Distance runner up off 81 and placed off 80, has gone up to a mark of 91 and whilst around 13/2 is a decent price, I think there are better options at bigger prices given the increased handicap mark.

 

The one I'm most confident in outside of the one listed about whom I have reservations is SUNSHINE GIRL. Gary Hanmers yard know how to deliver winner as we have seen over the past few years, this ex Irish horse looks to have an excellent each way chance at around 8/1 and has enough proven stamina and form in Ireland, and in the UK to be a confident main selection.

 

At bigger odds there were three that stood out as speculative bets, at 50/1 Dynali could run far better than the Odds suggest and well worth a small £1 e/w type bet for those that like them. Both YOU SAY ITS OVER and LIGHTHOUSE MILL have better chances at nice odds the more i studied them. Wot You Wearing IS in the Tracker but i don;t think suited by conditions today.

 

LIGHTHOUSE MILL  has had a couple of good solid Course runs over slightly shorter trip and an ability to run well at the Track here is always a big positive. It's on a nice mark and does come from a 3 mile P2P background (a phrase you will get sick of hearing but very valid as you'll know). YOU SAY ITS OVER is another with a 3 mile P2P background and you can interpret the race analysis that it "weakened" over 2 miles 6 furlongs one of 2 ways, maybe it didn't get the trip or equally likely it got outpaced when the pace rose at the end. Having studied the race(s) I actually think this is a one paced type who will love the extra yardage and with Brian Hughes booked it will lack for nothing in the race nor the closing stages from the saddle.

 

Tips (1) Sunshine Girl / (2s) Lighthouse Mill / (3s) You Say Its Over