Tips for Sunday 15th November
SEAN - Punchestown 12.05 - Handicap Chase - 2 miles 5 1/2 Furlongs - Soft > Heavy - rain forecast - 18 run
A competitive race where a few seem to be backed off the back of a couple of well respected Irish Experts on a competitive Card.
Bois De Clamart was an impressive winner last time and gets a penalty, ticks all the boxes but at the Odds in the attritional conditions, one I'm happy to take on. Freewheelin Dylan is a Course and Distance winner, looks out of form, may I think need better underfoot conditions, could revive back here but I'm willing to take my chance.Myth Buster is solid and one that will win races so add to your Trackers but have to take fitness on trust too much here for my liking. Nobody Home is an understandable favourite but despite being a Course winner and a nice win last time out, the 9 lbs rise looks a bit punitive for a 10 year old rising 11, whose mark had been pretty static for a while prior to the win.
Cuneo from the Elliott yard may be work the "Elliott £1", yet to really find it's Chase form although indications last time it was slowly getting to grips with the bigger obstacles and given connections be a folly to totally rule out so we'll have a small bet on that one.
A Great View is one of those being well supported, off for 248 days though and best form over Hurdles, I can't find any decent form fresh though, and no indication it should be being backed as it is, unless of course someone knows something. The price for me has gone and I'll take it on. Fine Theatre has an interesting profile, Pulled Up last time but last 2 wins have been after a "P" in the form, on balance though best over shorter and over hurdles but one who couple pop up at a nice price. Fairly Legal for Robert Tyner is another who is about 10lbs above what looks a "ceiling handicap mark" and not sure about the trip in the mud.
That leaves me with CHAVI ARTIST who looks cracking each way value. A Course winner off 116, is race fit and found a competitive level in the mid 120's, no qualms or excuses about conditions here and with luck in running looks very solid. A mark of 126 with a decent 7lbs claimer, so no excuses.
At a price and a big price is BURNING AMBITION, has had a run it needed, really needs to tidy up jumping but would have mullered these at best and off a mark of 132, if it jumped round, I figure could easily out run those monster Odds.
TIP - CHAVI ARTIST / TRACKER - Burning Ambition.
PLACESPOTTER - Ian - Cheltenham 3.00 Greatwood Hurdle - 2 miles 87 yards - Soft - rain about.
A few non runners in what could be attritional conditions.
The Pipe horse could be anything, experience says not to be surprised if it hoses up and if you want a small saver on it, I won't argue with the logic.
Tegerek was a Course and Distance winner last time for Jonjo, up 10lbs, in a lot deeper in terms of the quality and the mud, I'm happy to take it on. Proschema is a nice horse, could romp this but i just don't feel it's the kind of day or conditions for ex Flat horses who may be betting skipping over better ground. Milkwood who won nicely at Ffos Llas on Good to Soft is an ex NHFlat horse and another who I think won't appreciate conditions.Hunters Call is a mixed bag in terms of form and one I can leave alone for today.
Harambe won this last year for Alan King off a mark of 137, then had a crashing fall and not seen since. Trainer had said last season that horse needed a run when explaining improved form in this race and for that reason alone, reluctantly will leave alone today off a mark of 143, big danger though. Ballyandy will no doubt get it's backers, got the t-shirt here and one that may well run a place and should be considered accordingly.
There are 3 I like marginally more though so will use Ballyandy in Tricast perms and as a reserve if any non runners.
STRONG GLANCE looks well over priced to me. Won over 2 miles and 2 furlongs in soft conditions off 121 and runner up over 2 and a half miles off 129, but a Course winner over NH Flat Course over bare 2 miles. It's a hold up horse so will need a fast early pace but one that could easily romp up the hill and I think its terific value.
SIR PSYCHO for the Nicholls team has won off 117 and 133 at this kind of trip in soft and heavy conditions and probably didn't get home over 3 furlongs in a seasonal debut run at Musselburgh in less than ideal circumstances. Another who could be finishing fast with others toiling IF we get the fast pace that's typical of this race.
Finally and a bit speculative is COUNTISTER 7th off a mark of 141 in this last year, dropped to a mark of 130, which on that running would give it a real each way shout IF reviving and finding that early season form.
TIP - Strong Glance / Trackers - Sir Psycho + Countister.