Tuesday 9th November
Fairyhouse 1.45 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles - 14 run - Good to Yielding (light showers)
I can see weakness and reasons not to dive in to any of the top 3 in the market especially at compressed prices below 5/1 so whilst clearly Direct Image; Favouri Logique and Arrycan are the most in form horses in the race, at the trip and in these conditions, I don't think they have optimum chances.
Sizing Malboy is in my tracker but clearly looking for a mark closer to 100 and below so I'll continue to track and be patient with that one.
A couple stand out as some each way value, VODKA SOCIETY is a sprightly 13 year old and popped up with a place at big odds last time, runs this track very well and one of the more likely to be running at best trip and can't be left out of calculations.
IF there is one lurking at a bigger price it may well be Father Jed who has been a runner up and winner over Hurdles off a mark of 91, won off a mark of 98 and is just coming in to that kind of range again running off 102 here with a 7lbs Claimer having found a 3 figure mark just a bit too challenging. In a field of very moderate opposition and the proven winning mentality, I think it can outrun longish Odds.
TRACKERS - Vodka Society + Father Jed
Fairyhouse 2.45 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 3 and 1/2 furlongs - 16 Run - Good to Yielding
Another race where I think the top 3 in the market are opposable.
Shantou Warrior is consistent but no each way value, Carnet De Stage has been pulled up and 21st of 22 on it's last 2 runs over Hurdles off this sort of mark; and Ballydam has won its last 2 races but over 3 miles in the P2P fields.
Lady McCabe may well need the run (famous last words!!) but is on a declining mark and in my Tracker, so make a note it'll be of more interest off a mark of 90 or lower. Sefton Warrior showed a few more encouraging glimmers last time but not an obvious winner in waiting yet and Emir De Rots will be a danger; winner and runner up last twice but handicapper may now have its measure.
I kept coming back to Noel Meades horse HYMIE WEISS who gets a decent 7lbs Claimer here, showed some promise in Maiden Hurdles and is dropped in trip and goes without the blinkers here, fit after a run and if it's going to fulfil some of that early promise, this race is definitely there for the taking.
Tracker - Hymie Weiss