There is a 15 runner 2 year old Maiden at Windsor at 6.15 - and that gives us an opportunity to explain the logic we will be applying to these races going forwards when we will start to have a significant amount of tips in them. A few newcomers in here and a few who have had runs and of them some whose first runs were better than their second runs, so a nice kaleidoscope to view.

 

Whether you take this as  educational and informative or for tipping purposes is frankly up to you. Personally, I'd prefer you to watch and see how the race pans out but to see it as an introduction to the logic that our new Expert in this field will be offering . We'll be introducing Carolyn to you in the next few days but for now here is her assessment of this specific race after some general pointers

 

Windsor 6.15 - Restricted Maiden - 2 year old-  Class 4 - 5 furlongs 15 run

 

This is a good test for a young and inexperienced horse and in any 5 furlong race the DRAW has to be considered. Young horses can run what you'll hear described as "green", meaning they may not run in a straight line, may veer under pressure, may not initially take to the whip and may or may not enjoy their early experience of the racecourse. Danger signs can be spotted in the Paddock and on the way to post, fractious , kicking , sweating and not liking the Stalls would all be negatives. Really expending unnecessary energy. That's not to say you want the horse to be too calm, it may be too switched off.

 

It's also VERY important to understand that whilst there are prodigious and prolific 2 year olds that the majority of these early types will be better for age and experience, most will be more forward in terms of development and tend to be on the smaller side. I'm a big Rugby fan and would best use the example of a powerful back row player, he or she may be far less fit and have far less size at 15 than they do at 20, as in school kids, the bigger ones at 12, may be smaller on average at 16, at this stage of the 2 year old season, far more will be tucked away in their stables and it's highly unlikely we have yet seen to pick of the crop, but we can make that pay betting wise.

 

Race experience is a big plus, a horse who has been to the races a few times should have an advantage over a newcomer but on the flip side, as in theis race, you do get smaller early types who can regress quite quickly as the stronger more physically stronger types start to appear. 

 

Two other things are KEY ingredients in finding winners and big priced place horses, TRAINER form. Not general Trainer form but an ability and background in TRaining 2 year olds. Some yards specialise in it - think Hannon / Burke nowadays and Paul Cole in the past, others won't have many 2 year olds at all until we start to see the leaves falling from the trees.  Finally and MOST important in my thinking is pedigree!

 

All 2 year old races at this stage of the season are 5 furlongs or 6 furlongs, towards the Autumn we'll see a few 7 furlong ad then up to a mile. If the Sires and Dams are 1 mile to 12 furlong specialists it is more likely their offspring will be better at those distances. However some Sires and Dams will have won themselves at Sprint trips and as they mature we start to see them produce "speedy early crops" or not as the case may be. The secret of this sector is to know your Sire and your Dam and to work out what types of horse they tend to produce. 

 

So let's look at this race specifically and a few pointers...

 

DRAW - here is confusing, they race almost every week and on Good to Firm, very high and very low have both got recent wins specifically in 2 year old races - a Rail can be a great help to these learners and it helps to keep them focussed and straight!

 

RACE EXPERIENCE, in here we have the likes of Woodhay Whisper - 2 runs but the first better than the last, Mister McGregor again 2 runs with first seemingly better than the last, Invincible Crown the favourite with a pair of 3rd places. Then we have a couple who improved for their first run namely BALZARINI and EIGHTEENCARATGOLD .

 

TRAINERS - a few here specialise in 2 year olds including newcomer Montbellarde for a yard whose 2 year olds are running very well. 

 

PEDIGREES - THE LAST TIME is a newcomer drawn 15 whose Sire was really speedy and producing nice speedy types. Pure Liberty too comes from a nice bloodline, perhaps the most interesting in terms of breeding is MISTER MCGREGOR whose Sire had 50% of its 2 year old Stock winning races last season, the highest rate amongst Sires 

 

OTHER pointers, EIGHTEENCARATGOLD ran very well over 6 furlongs last time, drops down to 5 furlongs having faded only in the final furlong, BALZARINI noticeably improved from first to second run unlike some who seemed to go backwards, THE LAST TIME may be a newcomer but that speedy pedigree suggests that if the highest draw is an advantage it can run well on debut.

 

So, in this case,I think the value lies with EIGHTEENCARATGOLD, BALZARINI and THE LAST TIME, it's a good race to give explanations and pointers, as a betting medium, I'm not so sure, so best I suggest to watch and enjoy. There WILL be tip races later in the week from me (CE)