Hexham 2.20 10 TURTLE CASK - 1/4 point each way @ 25/1

Lets start at the top of the market where COTTONVALE ; NEMEAN LION and LAWTOP LEGEND dominate. I can see why Cottonvale is 4/1 favourite based on some solid mostly Irish form, but the trip would not be a given, nor soft/heavy optimum on a long form glance. Similarly both Nemean Lion and Lawtop Legend would be best on "Good" ground and when you consider Lawtop Legend is around 5/1 running off a mark of 89 in a Class 4, with best runs a few pounds lower, off marks of 85-87 on better going, you might like to follow the logic and ignore for now the prices.

Of the remainder Onwithteparty could be the horse with most scope to improve, a runner up at Taunton off a mark of 100 almost 3 years ago; then runner up at Newcastle off a mark of 91, almost exactly 2 years ago and then won at Sedgefield over 3 miles and 3 furlongs off a mark of 92 in March last year. Clearly something amiss after that as only recently reappeared, ran well for a fair way then and could be a BIG danger here. The other one who caught the eye is MISFITS who has 3 mile Chase winning form and off a nice mark back Hurdling but just a niggle it is better at the Chasing game.

So we arrive at TURTLE CASK, 3 poor runs this season, the first 2 on unsuitably good Going when racing prominently and fading and last time out the back running more sensibly restrained at Haydock, so 25/1 would look about right on that basis??. However, then look at Course and Distance form, won in September last year in Class 5 off a mark of 88 and then runner up off a mark of 90 over Course and Distance in March this year. Those were in Class 5 but then look back at "Lawtop Legend" and you will see the tight comparisons in ability, handicap marks and proven form, yet TURTLE CASK would certainly seem to be the better horse in mud off comparable ratings and yet is 6 x the price. It's best recent career Ratings have been here in these conditions too.

There will be some who will be on the keyboard within 5 minutes if the horse gets pulled up who probably never went past the 3rd line of the e-mail; the service is called "speculate to accumulate" and it can be about courage and conviction. I am convinced that when you frame and analyse this race that TURTLE CASK has as good a chance of winning on proven Course and Distance form of the past as anything and we simply need one of these to "drop". Whatever the result, the analysis points to outstanding value in terms of the market....