Carlisle 4.00 Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 15 run - Soft / Heavy

 

This is a pretty deep race with some very solid experienced chasers of limited ability but who have decent Course form and who are handicapped to strike. The top end of the market looks pretty solid but on balance I think it's a race to "speculate" in rather than just go with the current form.

 

Travail D'Orfevre is a short price having been suddenly let off the leash jumping from a series of moderate runs at 2 miles up to a place at 3 miles and a win at 4 miles, and no early P2P form either. They have also managed to engineer a pretty static mark for now. If you want 2/1 to get round 3 miles in the mud at Carlisle and take this, feel free but my old logic is that I always want at least 5/1 in such races just to jump round safely. 

 

Breeze Of Wind won this last year off 96 and then won again off a similar mark to today but at the price today isn't great value to beat the hot favourite nor each way value to place and has a lot of weight to lug round in the mud. Dusatoir was very disappointing when we tipped it at Uttoxeter over Christmas and no surprise he's had a win operation. The form prior to that was progressive and he could well return to that sort of form but it's a tough old track here and any chinks in his preparation may show.  Torosay is in the TRACKER along with Dusatoir and Cream Of The West, I think Torosay may still need this but is a nice prospect for later in the Spring and Cream Of The West and Cape Belan, both drop in to Class5 where they have winning form but also have lumps of weight and it might just be a day that suits something off a lower mark with much less lead in the saddle cloth.

 

If I apply that logic and angle, there are still 5 or 6 that would have some sort of claim if you delve deeply enough. Croagh Patrick has decent Course and Distance form but a mark of 84 just looks a little on the high side, Stowaway John has best form in heavy ground bit over half a mile shorter but is back in a nice handicap mark range and could be one to follow. Gibberwell gets the dreaded 4th best rated tag, limited but consistent and to enhanced places the sort to plug on up the hill into 4th or 5th if you fancy a small punt.

 

On this occasion my 1-2-3 are DON BROCCO who has dropped to an eyecatching mark of 79 and who consistently runs well here in the mud. UPTOWN HARRY has his 4th race of the season and won 4th time out last season and with that being off a mark of 96 and over Course and Distance, today's mark of 92 at a price of around 16-20/1 with a first time visor is a bit mouthwatering. Finally, NIGHTS IN VENICE who will appreciate the trip, the ground and who runs off a nice mark and who should have no excuses on second run this season. (Northern)

 

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Punchestown 4.10 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs - 14 run - Soft > Heavy

 

Slotty Dotty is the one to beat at 7/4 but is upped 10lbs so opposable. Slim Marvel has shown promise but is upped in trip as are Gers Gigi and Betty Dutton. That adds a degree of vulnerability and there are 4 of the other mares in this race that came in for close consideration.

 

NO FUSSING was a runner up off a mark of 102 in this race last season and previously ran well here and off a mark of 100 looks very solid. BRIANNA LILY has been quiet of late but is back bang on her last winning mark of 98 off 103 with a 5lbs Claimer and has form at the trip so a return to winning form would not be as big a surprise as a price of 16-20/1 might suggest. I can't separate APPLES IN WINTER and Robyndeglory other than to note that Robyndeglory has had a host of chances and seems to run nest around March and September time whilst APPLES IN WINTER had one very strong run here in 2023 and looks decent value at 25/1 plus in these conditions. (Michael)