Monday 9th December

Lingfield 2.30 - Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs 12 run Heavy
 
This is a very competitive race and I could really make a sustained argument for 9 or the 12 runners. There is value to be had though so let's try to crack the puzzle. 
 
At the head of the market not surprisingly is Haut Folin for Venetia Williams who is in red hot form, a Course and Distance winner won on seasonal debut last year, returns off a 227 days break and is actually 4 lbs lower than the winning mark last season. Her horses either seem to win first time out and then fade or run poorly first time out and then come good around Cheltenham time.  The price reflects the Yard form and it may seem churlish to take it on but I think there is better value elsewhere.
 
Both Pedley Wood and Icaque De l'Isle are improving and progressive young Chasers, both will win races this season and for many future seasons if they stay fit and healthy. Both could win this but neither have won a 3 mile slog in the mud and more than that I'm not sure either Trainer would want them bottomed out and effectively stuffed for the season by trying to do so. I feel both could run on their merits but be pulled and saved for another day once reaching their limit in the conditions.
 
I can make very strong claims too for Dysania despite being the biggest price, another who can and has won first time out, off 73 here over Course and Distance last year, and certainly a danger off a mark of 79 for the Bowens off a 318 days break, I just feel a slightly tougher renewal will find him out today. Old Painless is another one who has genuine claims despite top weight and should be fully primed after 2 runs. He was my 4th best rated of the 12 runners and very close to a punt.
 
My top 3 are closely rated and I will suggest a punt on the top 2 and the 3rd as a back up.
 
TWILIGHT GLORY will come on for a run, an expert in heavy Going at 3 miles and off a nice mark here. SHOT BOII has run better than final finishing position suggests a few times, he is likely to try to nick this off the front and get them all working as they turn in and I rated him marginally above another who has run well for us already and who deserves a place at least and that is MORTENS LEAM who is another who will welcome the stamina test. (Advisor)
 
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Musselburgh 2.45 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 13 run
 
At the top of the market the likes of Quian for Fergal O'Brien, Prince of Perth upped in trip on handicap debut and Flashthelights who comes over from Northern Ireland as one of a trio for Noel Kelly will be the ones to beat but I can't say I'd be particularly confident in investing in any of them.
 
Mister Moodies and The Northern Lights for Sandy Thomson Mister Moodies for Red Menzies and the long distance traveller Catboy for Christian Williams would all be capable of improving to win this but once again none really over enthuse me today but all can be winning in the future I think.
 
I'm really keen though on THE ROC HOPPER who drops in trip from last time where he travelled sweetly for a very long way before fading, this easier Track will help as will the added race fitness and despite being around 25-33/1 I will be very disappointed if he doesn't figure strongly here.
 
Had the Going been Good to Soft i'd be really keen on MINELLA YOUNGY but the price at 10/1 or better is attractive enough and this Track does drain well so if the winds just keep it soft not soft to heavy, he has a fighting e/w shout. (Northern)