Wincanton 1.45 Mares Handicap Hurdle - Class 2 - 2 miles 5 and 1/2 furlongs - 14 run - Good

 

A very competitive early season heat and whilst we have to take race fitness of many on trust there are a fair few here with a good record running fresh, a few who have been summer jumping who will relish the ground, although there is a fine cloudy mizzle across the South West forecast overnight that may just take the sting out of the ground here.

 

Pretending is fit and in form but may be vulnerable now off an inflated mark, Larchmont Lass was a steady improver last season, particularly after Christmas, including a course and Distance win but i feel may just need the run for the Nicholls team. The Height Of Fame is another proven over Course and Distance but may be a little too deep in this company.

 

I was left with a solid short list of 4 runners here and whilst my top 2 jumped off the page at me I'm torn about 2 others so will flag those both up for your consideration.

 

My clear top 2 rated though are GOOD LUCK CHARM who won this race last season off a mark of 107 and who will no doubt be primed again for this and a mark of 115 may not be a deal breaker. ALL THE GLORY gets ideal conditions and has won off similar breaks in the past and one i think is always most dangerous when freshened up. The Jonjo yard seem to have hit some form far earlier this season, one of a number who have hit the ground running.

 

The other pair that I can't frankly split in terms of performance expectation are SPACE VOYAGE @ 14/1 who is best right handed, was placed in this last year off 5lbs higher mark and the return of cheek-pieces should not be underestimated, the other is the Nicholls second string SABRINA @ 18/1 a Course and Distance winner, a winner before in November, and we do like to keep an eye on Mares at periods of the calendar when they might be in their rudest health and this one just looks over-priced at over 20/1. I would just err on the side of the market value of SABRINA if push came to shove (Robin)

 

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Aintree 2.40 Grand Sefton Chase - Handicap Chase - National Course - 2 miles 5 furlongs - 13 run - Good to Soft

 

There are too many intangibles here I feel in terms of race fitness and not sufficient runners to go in too deep.

 

My top 2 rated are IDALKO BIHOUE who looks a real prospect for the Twiston-Davies yard who despite a calamitous loss of a top prospect in Cuthbert Dibble have been in generally excellent form and GABORIOT @ 15/2 whose only poor run was when unseating over these Fences at the National meeting. 

 

There is one though at a big price who I feel is overlooked and over-priced and with that being a McCain horse obviously over these fences your eyes have to be open to the possibility of a big run. RICHMOND LAKE is definitely also best fresh and won't be lacking condition or preparation for sure.

 

So being sensible in terms of staking I suggest investing in IDALKO BIHOUE and RICHMOND LAKE on this occasion. (RJ)

 

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Doncaster 3.45 Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 4 furlong - 23 run - Soft

 

This is likely to be a real end to end test on soft Autumn ground.

 

At the top end of the market we have the likes of Valvano who has been supported all week but who I feel may be vulnerable in these conditions and the same applies to second favourite Master Builder . There are many in with form chances but if we weed out those who would prefer better ground and a few who may be over the top after long seasons, I was left with a shortlist of around half a dozen of the 24 runner field.

 

My top 3 rated fall into place quite nicely and comfortably and are MINSTREL KNIGHT a mud lover with proven stamina over further who may just out stay these in the closing stages, FLASH BARDOT who gets ideal conditions, is generally very consistent and who really deserves and win and an almost identical type to both of those in CHILLINGHAM who also drops slightly back in trip and who is another who deserves a moment in the winners enclosure as a winner!

 

There were then 3 others all closely rated who could easily take a hand here but each has niggling doubts. 

 

STRESSFREE is the TRACKER; is upped from 10 furlongs where it has been finishing strongly. Spencer is booked by astute connections and you can see the logic of saving energy and pouncing late, the niggle is that these are not ideal conditions to test stamina for the trip. ADJUVANT @ 16/1 is very lightly raced and may be one with scope still to improve, conditions should suit but you have to take fitness on trust after a break since May. The question is why come here if not fully fit, although they did dally with Hurdling last season, so that is an added quandary. Finally we have MAXI KING @ 40/1  very highly tried since mid summer, lightly raced and a Course and Distance winner in similar conditions.

 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't, if I have to pick a 4th poke, possibly just 8 STRESSFREE @ 9/1  who does have a 12 furlong winning sire and an 11 furlong winning dam. (Northern)