MARKET RASEN - 3.15 Summer Plate Handicap Chase - Class 1 - 2 miles 5 and 1/2 furlongs - Good (cloudy but dry)

 

The Bowens target this race and have the 2021 and 2022 winner Francky Du Berlais returning again , I think the horse is is gentle decline but the second string STATUARIO the pick of Sean which is interesting, drops in trip, has form at this trip and off a likely fast and genuine pace may just outstay the lot of them up the gentle hill.

 

A whole host arrive in every impressive form but are in a bit deeper here, the likes of Sure Touch on a 4 timer upped in grade with a 7 lbs penalty, Riskintheground also on a 4 timer and upped another 4lbs, Yccs Portocervo, on a 4 timer too upped 4lbs and all out last time, all have strong claims on form, but my gut feeling is they will all find this too tough, for now.

 

Dinons an 11 year old recent facile hurdle winner for Brian Ellison off a 2 year break will be a danger, as will La Dominale, who I have just added to the TRACKER, a runner up in this race in 2022, returns off a break of 306 days and evidence suggests may need the run, clearly a decent summer horse who we will follow after today. at bigger prices both Prince Escalus, who started in 3 mile P2P racing but who has inexplicably been kept to 2 miles and 2 miles 2 furlongs by Jonjo steps belatedly up in trip and especially The Big Lense who had a good CD prep could outrun their odds by a considerable margin.

 

I'm most keen on BOOMBAWN for the Skeltons and at 5/1 ish, I think a cracking each way punt, STATUARIO is clear top rated and of all of those very progressive types I've listed, the best may be PARISENCORE for Nicky Richards, a very smooth and eye catching run upped to 2 and a half miles last time and ran straight through the line full of running, I'll be disappointed if he isn't in the first 4 home and in front of those on 4 timers. (DT)

 

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RIPON 4.30 - Handicap Class 4 - 1 mile - Soft - 12 run (dry cloudy day)

 

A host of these seem to be out of form but 3 caught my eye, two with a degree of confidence.

 

At the top of the betting Pumalin Park is an unexposed lightly raced Sir Michael Stoute horse whose form is hard to quantify, Garden Oasis is an experienced handicapper who would want it a lot firmer than this. Thunder Roar will be ideally suited by conditions but a 77 day break for no obvious reason just put me off. My third best rated was the O'Meara French import Bennetot for whom a mile on soft should be ideal, but I'm just not convinced they know what is the best trip for this one as yet. 

 

ON THE RIVER loves ground with some cut, the trip is fine and off a mark of 80 has no excuses in terms of handicap mark, just below winning level. TITAN ROCK won impressively at Thirsk in May, hated York last time but eased in Grade and off a declining mark on ideal ground, would be a very strong favourite if it can replicate the Thirsk rin and looks over-priced (North)

 

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NEWMARKET 6.35 Fillies Stakes (non handicap) Class 1 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 14 run - Good (dry)

 

This race intrigued me despite being a non handicap.

 

A number of unexposed fillies who may yet be to show their best, many upped in trip and some down in Class and intensity of opposition. 

 

A real puzzle but one where 2 really stand out in terms of form, confidence and opportunity.

 

The Gosdens are sending out One Evening, form of 2-2-1 over 12 and 14 furlongs but off for 274 days and upped 6 lbs, may just be found out for race fitness. Danielle is upped in trip and I'm not convinced of this one at all. Drawn To Dream ran OK last time and this ex German horse could improve for UK experience as time goes on. Esmeray arrives on a 4 timer and has won off marks from 77 to 85 and now off 91, a rapid improvement but these are much deeper waters. At bigger Odds if you wanted a 3rd option then I think CHING SHIH @ 14/1 who has been highly tried and in too deep since a 2 year old win may finally be reaching the level and mark it can win off and is clear top 3 rated.

 

My top pair though are MISTRAL STAR a shade unlucky in running last time and who will love the Course here and SEA OF ROSES from the in form Balding yard who really looked to be running in to form and fitness last time out and this looks just the right opportunity to step up to 12 furlongs and the pedigree suggests that may be optimum trip (TA) 

 

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2 YEAR OLDS-:

 

NEWBURY 3.35 Super Sprint Stakes - Class 2 - 5 Furlongs. 19 run - Good to Firm

 

I have a very strong fancy here on all known formlines for VINGEGAARD who ran very well at Royal Ascot on Good to Firm ground and if repeating that would take all the beating here.

 

The other stand out form for me but with a Going niggle is PONT NEUF. He bombed out at Royal Ascot when the occasion clearly got to him, IF he handles the Good to Firm Going, and on pedigree he should, then I would envisage a very strong place run at least. 

 

Those would be my 1-2 picks.

 

If you want an outsider and there are many unexposed types in here then MAPLEDURHAM definitely looks worth a small e/w punt, 3 runs at 6 furlongs have indicated the horse has stamina for that sort of trip but may be better at a tough straight 5 furlongs, it may well be staying on here when others start to flag off a ferocious pace and the canny Trainer did find one to win this race in 2019 and the profile just looks very interesting!

 

(CARO)