Ayr 1.23 - Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 5 and 1/2 furlongs - 13 run - Good to Soft

 

A low grade Northern handicap but a couple really do stand out at the prices in a field where plenty on past evidence will need the run

 

At the top of the market Wal Bucks and Pats Dream both fall into that category and don't look great value to me. At bigger Odds I would not be completely surprised to see Toombridge run a big race from an in-form Yard but this is one that also usually needs a run. The same applies to Azof Des Mottes and Ironhill, especially with this one coming back off a 15 month break, but both of the last 2 names are added to the TRACKER for their following few runs.

 

My pair against the field are GRAND VOYAGE, who has the benefit of an early run already for the Colthard's and who runs off a nice mark here, perhaps best at Kelso but can make that race fitness pay today. SPUTNIK runs off a lowly weight and handicap mark but is a Course winner who has already have a pipe-opener and one who was placed at this meeting last season on second seasonal appearance. (North)

 

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Ascot 3.15 Handicap Hurdle - Class 2 - 1 mile 7and 1/2 furlongs - 13 run - Good

 

They are likely to go at a really good clip here; and we'll only really know who is cherry ripe first time out after the event as there will be precious little time to take a blow and get a second wind.  

 

I am adding both Jour D'Evasion and Fire Flyer to my TRACKER both will probably win slightly easier races once fit and healthy. Our Champ and Stream Of Stars bring race fitness but I sense with both that this race could be a little above their current and known ceilings, Rightsotom is a bit of an unknown quantity off an 18 month break and whilst it's hard to leave out any Henderson horse, Break My Soul too has to step into deeper waters here. At the top of the market both Fiercely Proud and Secret Squirrel look too short for win value purposes.

 

On the day I think that the best e/w value lies with the Paul Nicholls second string AFADIL who was 5th in The County Hurdle, runs well right handed, has had a nice run and blow already and off a nice mark might just be one to catch on the right day. TINTINTIN for the continuingly upwardly mobile Fergal O'Brien yard is the other who has had a spin and he's one who won second time out last time, not a blindingly obvious winner of this but the Yard's horses are tough and fit and not afraid to aim high. (Robin)

 

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Ascot 3.45 Handicap Chase - Class 1 - 3 miles - 11 run - Good

 

A race in which we have a very poor record I'm told; but one I've found the winner of a few times.

 

Chianti Classico is a worthy 3/1 favourite but not great win value on seasonal debut, Amirite is race fit for De Bromhead but not obviously well treated, Our Power won this in 2022 and is really very lightly raced and would be a big danger if readied. 

 

The pair that caught my eye in terms of price value are TWO FOR GOLD a Course and Distance specialist runner up in this last year and the percentage call at 16/1, the Trainer suggests this is his last season so I doubt he's been spared any possible opportunity to be cherry ripe early season as they won't want to be ploughing through deep mud.

 

I'd be keener still in FLEGMATIK in slightly softer ground but it's not hoof rattling and if it is they would more than likely pull him out, but with a quiet but decent spin already under his belts and good runs in this race the past 2 years, a place and a fall when in contention up the hill last year, if running, I think he can definitely look to be placing.  

 

(RJ)