Saturday 7th December
Navan 1.42 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 1 furlong - Yielding 21 run
The big yards throw multiple horses at this and you could name all of Mullins and Elliot's runners as possibles rather than probables. Four Clean Aces and Poggane would seem to be Mullins top pair and Prends Garde A Toi and Minello Sixo the more likely of the seven Elliott runners. A few dark horses from the likes of Emmet Mullins and then three good horses all of whom may well benefit from their seasonal return and not likely to be "bottomed out" in My Trump Card, Flicker of Hope and Intense Raffles.
My final top 4 are horses who I think are fit, ready to roll, are well enough handicapped and a pair of them should outrun big Odds and compete for enhanced places.
GAOTH CHUIL was a great servant for us last season, has had 2 runs and should now be race fit, conditions ideal, the mark is still a bit on the high side but a canny 5lbs is claimed and if there is one horse in the whole of Ireland who I would want to put his head down and battle for me, it's this one.
GOOD TIME JONNY has not thrived over fences and the confidence knock that may have caused is actually my only concern. If you look purely on past Hurdles form this one could be deemed to be "thrown in" off a mark like this and the fact it's been 7 weeks since last run suggests plenty of schooling over the small Hurdles will have been done.
At bigger Odds both ICEBERG THEORY a Course winner at 2 and a half miles and one i've always thought will be best at 3 miles for Paul Nolan and JODY TED at 50/1 but a proven stayer who has a Hurdle win at the trip off mark of 115 and just the type to stay on with many of these not likely to be over-exerted once chance has gone, the mark of 125 is by no means ideal but sometimes a resolute plodder is just the ticket for this type of attritional slog. (Sean)
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Wetherby 1.23 - Handicap Chase - Class 4 - 3 miles - Soft - 11 run
In these conditions i'm happy to take the likes of Latenightrumble, an unexposed P2P horse, and Wal Bucks, a progressive Chaser with a real future ahead but at a short price, on with some who are a bit more exposed but be running to get some nice place money at the very least.
BREEZE OF WIND is the confident each way Nap on this Card today, and out and out mud-loving Stayer who has had a run and will benefit from it. For the runner up / second pick, I found it very hard to split ALI STAR BERT a Course and Distrance winner off a mark of 102, running off 102 again here and impossible to ignore and Agirlcalledchloe whose Irish form suggests this trip and conditions may be ideal. I will side with the known UK form of ALI STAR BERT. One other to TRACK forwards is Bee Bee Hive, saddle slipped last time but a progressive 7 year old Chaser who should be winning races soon (Northern)
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IF Sandown IS ON....and IF non runners don't decimate fields as high winds may cause transport issues around the M25
12.40 Mares Hurdle - LARCHMOUNT LASS looks very solid at 5/2 but Dollar Collar for Lucinda Russell and Ottoline for Venetia Williams are nice types, well worth following forwards.
3.35 London National - Montgomery and Mr Vango are at the top end of the market but Paul Nicholls looks sure to have BROKEN HALO plenty fit enough and almost certain to have got him up to the Course from Ditcheat in plenty of time. I would just fancy TOMMIE BEAU in these conditions to race prominently and just beat CERTAINLY RED for the places (Robin)
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NO TRACKERS - the ones we had were at Abandoned meetings.