Southwell 1.50 2 Reckless Behaviour @ 16/1 - 1/4 point each way (Sky + Lads + PP + Coral + BFred 1-4)

On a day when there are very small fields at Fakenham and dire AW at Lingfield, this Class 4 3mile Hurdle at Southwell (far from our favourite NH track) does stand out like a sore thumb. A number of decent Bookies go Odds to 4th place, so worth a look and the deeper you look, it's not a bad little race of its kind.

We saw yesterday with the majority of races being won by market leaders; and the 2 selections getting no where near, that in "seeking value" you can end up with egg on your face, but if that was the case all of the time, we'd all back market leaders in every race, and there would be no point in any further analysis. It's always good to try to find a "game one" at a nice price and there are a few in here whose chances could be hidden under a bushel, in terms of the market.

TOOSEY and CAHILL head the market and may well prevail, we have tipped Nemean Lion many times for little return; he did pop up last tie, but a 5 runner race at 5/1 was always going to be "off our radar" and he does not strike me as value to follow up. Of the others in the top 4-5 of the betting we looked closely at WESTERN WAVE who made a decent return and has a nice 7lbs Claim and especially at DANSEUR DU LARGE. DDL started over an inadequate 2 miles under Rules, went Point 2 Pointing and has had some success over 3 miles. We really like to study P2P from and correlate it to Rules, had fantastic run doing that in deep Going last year, and will do so again no doubt if it ever rains properly again, but both the correlated form and fitness of this one are sketchy at best. It is one we will definitely track, but watch today (if it sluices up then the P2P angle will be vindicated but not sure enough on that to tip today)

The Trigger is 10lbs above a win mark, King Cool, from the in form Moore yard, is similarly 11lbs above its last win mark and Brown Bear; whilst back to its win mark has never really suggested this is its trip. Any horse that can win, in these type of modest events is worth a look, having looked we will cross those 3 off for today. 

That left a final list for some value of 3 horses, EL SCORPIO looks way over priced on a few glimmers of form, Groucott pops up here over Jumps like Roy Bowring does on the AW; one of those to watch closely over the winter, the horse though is not really bred for this type of trip, ran well over a bit shorter at Bangor last time, first try at extended  trip, but proximity to winner may just flatter it. It was also held up there to get the trip and I always think you need to be "handyprominent" round this tight left handed track. EATON MILLER has run 3 successive good races to place - especially notable at Worcester over 2 miles and 7 furlongs off marks of 81 and 83. There are similarities as both left handed and flat and temporary Hurdles, but Worcester is a more galloping track and my only niggle is that I have yet to see the horse really run to the line over a trip like this, more it plods on and "gets there".

So; the selection at around 16/1 is RECKLESS BEHAVIOUR. It was a runner up in a 3 mile Point 2 Point of a decent standard, has then gone to Rules and slowly eased up in distance from an unsuitable trip. Has been once tried over 3 miles under Rules but won a 2 and a half mile race, Class 4 off a mark of 109. Had a run and will be fitter for it I'm a fan of the Trainer (Caroline Bailey) and warming to the Jockey, who I used to avoid, so all in all, looks like one who may improve for the trip and that P2P run as a younger horse points the way for me. A sporting punt in a tough race to assess on a day with precious little punting opportunity. So staked accordingly, and we will look again tomorrow.