MICHAEL - Curragh 3.45 Fillies Handicap - 1 mile - 13 run - Good

 

A nice mix of emerging 3 year olds and some older more experienced types here.

 

Indigo Fire is the one to beat on known form and tops the market, around 4/1 is decent win only value and I will have a small side stake personally on that basis.

 

There are plenty of others though with chances and at least one I want to TRACK forwards.I always err towards a high draw here and but for that would fancy both Serious Notions who is unpenalised for an easy win but in deeper waters here and Dagoda a staying on Course winner over 7 furlongs here last time but drawn in stall 5, more than I do today.

 

Both Breathe Again @12/1 (3rd rated), who I have added to the TRACKER on handicap debut who has been running at a mile and 10 furlongs and who is drawn 12 here and KARLSBERG who was staying on over 7 furlongs last time from a slow start and who could arrive fast and late from Stall 13 could outrun very generous odds.

 

My each way banker though is GLEN PRINCESS from the Murtagh yard, drawn 11, on handicap debut but very impressive last time and one who could easily end the season considerably higher up the handicap than today. (MG)

 

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NORTHERN - Redcar 5.02 Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 1 furlong - 14 run - Good

 

They run round a very tight left hand turn here and join the 1 mile straight at the 5 furlong Pole so a low draw and early position can be an advantage.

 

The market is led by the out of form Temper Trap and the high drawn Mist Rollin In, and I'm happy to take both on at their respective early prices. Carvahal could also struggle to get an early pitch or use up early energy from stall 13 and would otherwise have been a pick here. Where's The Crumpet has solid claims from a middle berth and I will add Gregorianna @ 12/1 - (3rd rated) from the Julie Camacho yard to the TRACKER from today, an interesting step up in trip on handicap debut and one to keep an eye on.

 

My clear top rated is WHATWOULDYOUKNOW who made eye-catching and smooth progress to come into contention at 10 furlongs last time out, this flatter track and a step back to 9 furlongs looks ideal and a repeat of that run would take him very close indeed. I'll also take a more speculative punt on LOUBIERE for Reb Menzies Team, this one gets a nice draw in stall 3, and based on one specific AW run at Newcastle staying on late over the unforgiving straight mile on the tapeta, I think this trip could be ideal, especially if the horse can slowly wind the wick up from a prominent position turning in. (North)

 

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NEWTON ABBOT 3.35 - Handicap Hurdle Class 4 - 3 miles 2 and 1/2 furlongs - 11 run - Good to Soft

 

A biblical level downpour on Monday resulted in the cancellation of that Fixture.  Very hot and dry until yesterday when more heavy rain fell. I think Good to Soft, Soft in places is probably a fair assessment of Going and that rules a few out, who would prefer better Going.

 

Saint Bibiana on a 4 timer with wins off 95 - 101 (over Course and Distance) - 105 and now 109 is the clear favourite but this is a possibly deeper race. The trip in the ground is a slight niggle for me about Wavering Down and Grove Road is just too inconsistent to place any great faith in. 

 

At bigger odds, I would not be surprised to see The Longest Day run a big race as an easy right handed track suits this one, it would be a tip if Good to Soft or better, especially on Good to Firm, but I just pass it by for Going concerns. At a similar early price though is CROSSING THE BAR, this horse is very frustrating of late and seems to have soured. It's staggering though to not he's still only a 7 year old and off a mark of 105 he really is thrown in on some very good form just 2 seasons ago. The softer ground, which he handles, may just revive him and I feel he's one of those who just needs one decent run and to turn in to the home straight in contention and just pick up the bridle and actually enjoy the battle once again, as the ability is clearly there, it is just that spark needed to fire it.

 

Aside from all of those though the most solid e/w punt should be HALIFAX who despite top weight ticks all of the right boxes for me. You will note (below) that Mr Yeats is in the TRACKER, he regularly places, regularly finds one too good and is frustrating in that his price reflects that, so he's not great win value and restrictive e/w value. He may "Pop up" if I don't tip him, but on the basis he's just so bl**dy frustrating, I will go with HALIFAX and CROSSING THE BAR (DT)

 

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