Carlisle 3.40 10 Total Assets @ 33/1 early B365 + BV and 25/1 Sky + WH and 20/1 generally -: in this type of race I don't want to be backing favourites and not really anything under 5/1, in my mind that is long term folly. The logic changes now from working from the top of the market down for value, to looking at the bottom up for value and it pays rich rewards. The selection is fit after recent run, is laden with stamina and one of the most likely to see out the trip. Is fine on a stiff track like this. It would ideally like it softer but 'Good" at Carlisle is likely to be genuine Going. It can run prominently, more recently runs out  the back and then makes late ground. The jockey is worth her Claim and no excuses there. It may get outpaced early, but I have a hunch they will ride to bring stamina in to it and if the field go off a yard too fast, it will pass more up the hill than anything and could grab a place at least.

Carlisle 4.10 11 Permission Granted @ 16/1 + 10 Urban Kode @ 20/1 - 1/4 point each way each - I listed 3 here who are real value v an uneasy short priced favourite who is there to be attacked. Permission Granted and Samtu opposed last time and the selection from Rose Dobbin finished very well in need of the run. I think it will over turn that run with Samtu. I like Samtu a lot here but I have a nagging suspicion that Urban Kode could run a massive race. Urban Kode is deemed to be a flat right hand track specialist (Musselburgh and Perth) yet it does have bit of form on stiffer tracks. If gets its ground and is cherry fit. I will have a bet with one of 3 bookies (Sky/BetFed and the Tote) who go to 4 places and a small full per tricast on the 3 as at those odds would be a juicy bonus.