Tuesday 2nd October
Tipster | Course | Time | Horse | Stake | Notes |
Mention | Ayr | 3.15 | 13 Zebulon @ 16/1 2 Granny Roz @ 16/1 (see Tricast Perm also) | ¼ e/w ¼ e/w | L/C/S/Bf 1-4 |
Mention | Ayr | 3.45 | 1 Redarna @ 10/1 | ¼ e/w |
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Proof | Ayr | 4.20 | 9 Queen Penn (SK) / 4 Proud Archi (DH) | n/a |
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Proof | South | 4.35 | 8 Stonemadforspeed / 6 Suggestion (MO’B) | n/a |
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AYR 3.15 13 Zebulon each way @ 16/1 + 2 Granny Roz each way @ 16/1 - 1/4 point each way (Ladbrokes / Coral / Skybet / Betfred enhanced guaranteed to 4th so use them) - if you want a Tricast perm for small units add in to some single lines Chaplin Bay and Pomme De Terre
A 6 furlong handicap Class 5 and one of those end of season races, where it is probably best to ignore overall form and look for angles that are a bit more specific, one angle is the freshness of the horse, another is a change in trip and finally, when we get in to October, always worth in my humble opinion, looking back a year or two, some horses fire in the Autumn, some are simply OTT by then.
I was left with a short list of 4 all at decent odds and left out for tip purposes CHAPLIN BAY who tends to arrive late on the scene, he does worry me over this straight track but in recent times here pace has been important, so one for a Tricast Perm as is POMME DE TERRE who has one standout piece of form in a Class 4 race at York, that could make it a real danger here on a Course with a very similar configuration.
The tips though are ZEBULON who steps back down to 6 Furlongs after running prominently and sometimes too freely over 7 Furlongs. It was only last year that it was winning a Class 4 at Newmarket off a mark of 74 over this trip in soft Going for Richard Hannon, it may be that the horse was a better 2-3 year old and has not developed, but Ruth Carr is a genius at improving horses at 4 and beyond and back in trip, with clear ability at it in soft ground, a mark of 63 looks very appealing.
The other one that caught my eye was GRANNY ROZ who comes here relatively fresh after a light campaign, Has had two runs at 5 furlongs after abreak, no doubt to open the tubes and to get the horse cherry fit, it won a 6 furlong race earlier in the season off a mark of 68; likes this Going and a ark of 74, less an excellent 3 lbs Claimer looks very appealing and the type to TRACK on after today as that mark under 70 would jump off the page at me!
In the 3.45 race 1 REDARNA is the only one with Course and Distance form and looks to be on a nice mark despite top weight; everything looks right for this one today to my eyes and the 10/1 looks an excellent each way price. Again the recommended stake is 1/4 point each way.
The "Paper Proofing Tips" are just that, ones for you to monitor and watch, we will be making some tipster changes as promised in terms of Flat and AW in a few days and that leads me nicely on to yesterday.