Tuesday 8th October
Leicester 3.23 - Handicap - Class 5 - 6 furlongs - 14 run - Heavy
At the top of the market I want to take on Papabella with a 6lbs penalty for a Course and Distance win but who may be vulnerable off this revised mark and Sounds Of Spring who doesn't represent each way value.
A pair at bigger odds have sufficient form in this sort of ground to warrant a mention and of them, if you wanted a 3rd pick to an enhanced place or a reserve in case of a non runner, then WILLINGLY who is best on soft ground, runs off a nice mark and gets a draw in stall 12 that may be an advantage is worth a look and was rated just above the 4th rated Spirit of Breeze who has a Course and Distance win but who has been quiet so far in 2 runs off a 14 month break, he could be one to follow.
My top pair though are BELSITO an impressive winner up the hill at Carlisle on soft ground earlier in the season off a mark of 62 and back down to a more realistic mark of 64 in similar conditions, and , IMPRESSOR who is best on stiff uphill tracks in soft ground off marks in the high 60's and all of those boxes are clearly applicable here!
(RJ)
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Leicester 5.00 Handicap - Class 6 - 7 furlongs - 15 run - Heavy
The top pair in the market here are TEMPER TRAP a 4 time runner up since its last win and on its last 3 runs and 13lbs below its last winning mark and Ratafia whose last 2 wins have been off a mark of 46 on heavy ground and 60 on Good to Soft. Of the pair I see TEMPER TRAP as an obvious "win saver" for those who like that sort of bet.
Pearl Sands was an unexpected winner at Ffos Llas over a mile in deep ground so deserves a mention here, Ey Up Its Jazz would definitely have been a tip here but for a 5 month break and one to TRACK forwards over the next 5-6 weeks I think on soft turf.
I'm keen for a small each way bet though to augment Temper Trap on BALLSBRIDGE who has got proven 1 mile stamina, will cope with the ground on past form evidence and who gets a high draw which may assist especially on the rain and race softened ground and DIDDY MAN who returns to preferred soft ground off a declining mark and a double figure draw again gives it a boost (TA)
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Huntingdon 4.00 Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 1 furlong - 11 run - Good
I narrowed this down to 6 of the 11 runner field who were tighty rated in my analysis.
I can't see past CLANAROSE for the win to be honest so recommend a straight win bet on this one.
The increased mark and short break puts me off Porter In The Park on this occasion, Kitesurfer and Catuaba both bring impressive recent form from Worcester to this track but one thing that stands out with both of these is that all of their best form so far has been on left handed tracks, the fact that this is a tight turning right hand track therefore is a negative for their chances today I feel.
I rated Ballintubber Boy who won this race last year and who can run OK when fresh and PLANET LEGEND a race fit Course winner off a mark of 115, which is 6lbs below its last winning mark) identically and only the more recent runs and race fitness defines PLANET LEGEND as the second pick.
(Robin)