Bangor On Dee 12.25 - Handicap Chase - 2 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - Class 3 - 15 run - Soft (Good to Soft patches)

 

THey have found some soft ground here, I suspect they have watered well and consistently between Fixtures and have been rewarded with a field packed with some potentially nice Chasers, a few more experienced ones and while many may need the run, I do feel it's one of those races that could throw up a fair number of future winners.

 

At the head of the market we have JAGWAR, a competent if unspectacular winner on seasonal and handicap Chase debut last time. He looks the most likely winner, 2/1 looks very skinny but if you want a dabble, I have to say, he's more likely than not to win this. Lowry's Bar was a 4 time winner over hurdles last year, has had a hurdle pipe-opener and looks to have the build of a Chaser and at 4/1 is second favourite but there is some canny experience hidden in the depths of this field that I chose not to ignore.

 

Lord of Cheshire has jumped adequately in small fields but this will be a step up in intensity and at 8/1 is a decent each way poke, but I feel there are at least two better rated in terms of my analysis. Mount Tempest returns off a break and is upped in trip by the Skeltons but other than it's Trainer and Jockey I can't currently find a reason to tip it. Of those likely to come on for the run, of which there are about half a dozen, I think the most exciting prospect is GARINCHA a Course and Distance winner in this race in 2022 but off for 568 days, if that sort of ability remains, Neil Mulholland will still have a nice prospect on his hands.

 

It's all about what's ready and able to win "on the day" and has some hidden form to suggest it is over-priced and in that context a pair really does jump off the page.

 

SCENE ONE has won and placed first time out in the past 2 seasons, trainer Lucy Wadham can ready one and has come here to North Wales a few times to win this sort of race. He's off a nice mark and with that proven fresh first time out form a price around 16-20/1 looks very appealing.

 

Equally as appealing is the 50-66/1 about POST CHAISE. A 3 mile Chaser who runs prominently and can jump from fence to fence, has form at this trip earlier in it's career, is race fit and from an in form and very progressive Yard whose horses are tough and fit. It won a race for the second time out; in the past, it has had a run and off a mark of 114. I have to ask the question, why is he running over this trip today? It could be that they want to get another run in to it, it could be that they want 3-4 pounds off his back before a tilt at a nice 3 mile race, I would rather believe that they spot an opportunity to pick up a nice prize but running prominently and taking advantage of fitness especially with a fair number of these probably likely to need a second wind in the closing stages and a few of the less experienced jumpers being taken out of their comfort zone up front. I'll be mildly disappointed if were not in enhanced place territory with this one at big odds (Robin)

 

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