Lingfield 2.55 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 12 run - Standard

 

Frankly it's hard to dismiss any of these out of hand so I look for value and signs of a decent run off a competitive mark and some proven Course and Distance form here in the winter is always an advantage.

 

It's 5/1 the field and the likes of Fravanco, Upepo (mark a bit high) ; Highland Slipper (1st run left handed); Hill Station (pace angle) and Gold Angle (9 x runner up who must surely drop in one day) all have their merits but reasons to be considered vulnerable too.

 

Of the remainder most confidence lies with THE COLORIST; a Course and Distance winner, very consistent off marks in the high 50's and up to 60, runs off 60 and one who just looked primed to win again. My second rated for those who like a second option would be NANCY P a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 59, moved to the in form Moore yard and absolutely no reason why it can't win this off a mark of 60. If there is one at a price who could significantly outrun those odds it might be the Amy Murphy trained, Awtaad Prince, a 10 furlong winner off a mark of 62, gets first time blinkers and off a mark of 60, if they work the pedigree on the dams side suggests the trip may be within range. (AW expert)

 

-----

 

Kempton Park 7.40 - Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 3 furlongs - 11 run - Standard to Slow

 

I will start at the very top of the market as I think 7/2 is actually decent win value here for the consistent BOHEMIAN BREEZE, a recent recruit for the in form Moore yard from Charlie Johnstons yard, a Course winner off 70 running of 67 and they will want to capitalise on a chance like this.

 

Silver Nightfall with form figures of 2-2-1-2 all in 7 runner races will be an obvious danger but runs off a rising  mark, Last Empress has plenty of time and scope to improved upped from a mile to 11 furlongs and in new surrounding with Davis Menusier off a 6 month break, Liberated Lad has won his last 3 AW runs with plenty of turf runs in between though and with the AW wins being off marks of 55-60 and 63 maybe 66 is a tad on the high side, a dangerous opponent nonetheless. I am going to add meisterzing to my winter AW TRACKER as it has come back off an 18 month break and had plenty of scope before the enforced absence.

 

The e/w banker behind BOHEMIAN BREEZE would be TORTURED SOUL with 6 wins last winter rising from a base mark of 49 right up to 65, this one has shown signs of being able to handle tonight's mark of 66. If there is one at the bottom end big priced end of the market who may cause a bit of a stir it may be Blue Collar whose best run so far was over 10 furlongs when runner up at Goodwood and there is logic therefore in trying this extended 11 furlongs on the AW on AW debut off a mark of 64 by the canny David Evans who has recently purchased the horse and who will look to be winning races with this likeable 3 year old in time. (AW)

 

-----