Chepstow 2.55 - Mares Handicap Hurdle - class 5 - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs - 18 run - Good to Soft

 

An 18 runner handicap where I narrowed the 18 declared down to an initial shortlist of 8 runners.

 

Of those I think that both Ruby's Reward and Lung Run are dangers but not really close to my final top 3. Gata Ban made a quiet return off a 2 year injury absence and we don't really yet know what ability remains but one I will TRACK for the next 2-3 runs as form before injury was full of promise. Shaving, whose penultimate run at Worcester was full of promise and My Girl Katie whose steadily declining mark offer some hope that she may find a competitive level again at some point just missed the top 3, with MGK the 4th rated and I'm happy frankly to take on anything else at or near the top of the market with these 3 runners.

 

THE MIDWIFE has had 2 runs and should now be plenty fit enough, is below her last winning mark and Good ground, just about handles Good to Soft is key to her chances.KENTFORD MALLARD is far more exposed than some of these but also has far more verifiable form than many as a result and the two most recent wins have been off marks of 89 and 92, so a mark of 87 is appealing and the added footnote that the horse did run second time out last season! 

 

Finally, at a bigger price but with guaranteed enhanced places, I think that MORNING FORTUNE whose Irish P2P form where she finished close up to 2 nice prospects and miles clear of the rest, suggests that this could be an ideal trip and could also be quite a generous opening mark. (The Advisor)

 

Chepstow 3.30 Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 3 and 1/2 furlongs - Good to Soft

 

The market leader and probably one to beat is Boston Joe a Chase winner and a very rare Hurdles run here, it's got top weight and if you want a win saver, feel free.

 

Jacksbar for the Skeltons and Stardhem for the Pauling yard are next in the market and other than their links to top Yards I can't really find anything in their form yet at 2 miles to warrant the prices they are. They may well have potential and could improve at this trip but I'm happy to find some form that is more substantive. Ballydangan also runs for Skelton and arrives with some very moderate Irish form but has had a wind op and again, it's connections are really the main way in.

 

My top 3 therefore are ones with what I believe are stronger actual form claims.

 

THE COX EXPRESS has some solid form in the context of the race and the drop in trip should not be considered a negative but a positive with a fair number of the opponents stepping up in trip. GAVIN for whom Sean Bowen rides for his dad is a typically enigmatic horse, a significant drop in trip from last time but this usually prominent runner is sure to try to make them all be out of their comfort zone down the long straight and really Sean Bowen has no excuses for not getting the fractions right.

 

At bigger Odds I am drawn to the place chances of HEDERA PARK a Worcester winner off a mark of 87 last season and a faller with the race at its mercy on penultimate start at the same Track, that's pretty solid form and although inconsistent, the price is very decent each way in the early markets. (Robin)

 

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