Having watched most of the races this week and studied the draw and pace angles I'd concur 100% with what Jon has said in his opening piece and that is that its probably best not to get fixated by it and to go with form and gut reactions.

 

This is a race that has often been won by rock hard experienced types drawn on extremes in terms of the Draw although last year saw some progressive younger types come to the fore. A few would benefit from some rain, a few would ideally like it rock hard.  What's noticeable is the relative lack of out and out early pace angles, it's not a race where they are going to hang about but I do think any jockey making an enterprising early bid may steal a march as a few of the more likely ones do need to be delivered late and if they do all bunch up, there could be some real hard luck stories.

 

Having looked at the 28 in detail I was left with 3 lists of 3 horses and a couple of others.

 

It's hard not to fear last years winner ROHAAN - it's drawn 19 so plays to a middle to high narrative but not too far away if the far side is clearly the place to be. One issue though is that you can watch them all come one side in an earlier race, get suckered to go there and then find something suddenly sprouting wings up the flank you've discarded. FRESH is drawn in Stall 7 and market favourite, it was runner up in 2020 in a similar berth off a mark of 96, runs off 98 but James Fanshawe has been pretty clear that he does ideally want some rain to just take the sting out. BLACKROD is drawn in 25 and an improving 4 year old who is clearly on the up, my niggle with him is that increased handicap mark. As a trio though they are VERY appealing drawn lower, middle and higher.

 

I also looked at the bottom end of the market and you can easily make fairly strong arguments at big prices for ROYAL COMMANDO drawn 24 and signs that this one is just coming to a mark it can do some damage off, MR WAGYU who delivered a 12/1 win for us at Epsom a couple of weeks ago after we'd tracked it for a while gets a penalty but is according to his Trainer in the form of his life off a mark of 101 drawn in 28, he has the advantage also of not having any Ground concerns whatever happens. Then there is BIELSA who is drawn in 30, won the Ayr Gold Cup last year off 98, has dropped back to a mark of 100. Another interesting contender. I wouldn't really want to play just three though, 24, 28 and 30!

 

My other list of 3 is on sme proven horses who you know can and do deliver in this type of race. GULLIVER has run well in big Sprint races here, York, Goodwood and always a danger off a mark at or below 100. He is drawn in 6, he is a hold up horse who has to be delivered with a late run as he finds little. SUMMERGHAND his stablemate is drawn in 27 and is as tough as teak. Too consistent for his own good in many ways and with James Doyle up one who could try and make a break for it and we know the horse has the heart of a lion. It dropped to a mark of 101 which is 7lbs below Stewards Cup winning mark and one to really be pretty confident about with luck in running and with the draw. COMMANCHE FALLS is another who looks primed to me, ground versatile off a decent enough mark with a most recent win mark of 101, runs off a reducing 103 and just indicates its running into some form IF NOT HERE then one to notebook for Goodwood in late JUly.  Those 3 give me a nice draw spread too.

 

The other pair I kept coming back to are CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD for Mick Channon, drawn in Stall 12 which tactically covers middle to low but not so far away from the Stands rail if something makes a bolt for it from there. SILVER SAMURAI is a miler who has won its last two races at 6 furlongs and seems very progressive, it's probably the horse I fear most in the race.

 

My shortlist then is 11....too many

 

I'm going to just go for ROYAL COMMANDO from the long-priced list whilst fearing Bielsa who may not be ideally suited to this Course and Mr Wagyu whose penalty might just be too much in this Grade. From the third list I just feel Gulliver needs too many things to drop right on the day and will go for COMMANCHE FALLS and SUMMERGHAND. Of the market leader list, at the prices I just feel that Fresh may not get the rain it needs, Blackrod too may just not get that rain and the form of Rohaan is a bit in and out. I think that Silver Samurai may just be in the grip of the handicapper too and despite the wins not a natural 6 furlong horse but I really am taken with CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD.

 

That gives me a Draw spread of 24 for Royal Commando, 13 for Commanche Falls, 27 for Summerghand and 12 for Chairmanoftheboard. The only missing box is one in single digits and if you want that play I think Gulliver in 6 would be my preferred pick.

 

 

--------